Sunday, February 8, 2015

Detection of Patterns - Rumours - Easy papers: Do they really help in anyway?

(This blog was written to warn students about a rumor that claimed to have detected a pattern in AIPG papers. According to that rumour AIPG 2015 was supposed to be an easy paper full of repeat quetions! Whata a grave miscalculation! Read on)
A few more days to go for AIPG 2015 and I thought I should share with you all something that you may find interesting!

It is very common to see people trying to detect a pattern in exams conducted by a particular exam board. What's unfortunate is that the students assume they have made a significant headway towards cracking that exam, by exposing or unearthing what they feel was kept as a "well guarded secret" by the exam board.

Welcome to AIPG 2015 and there is already a misconception or rumour making rounds. It says there IS a pattern in AIPG exams.

Hold your breath now - the earth shattering secret will be revealed right now in 4 points!
1. The pattern is set by the AIPG exam board and the pattern is such that the difficulty level repeats in every alternate exam.
In simpler words, the pattern is "Easy-Difficult-Easy-Difficult-Easy...".
2. So suppose the last year exam was easy, this year it would be difficult.
3. But this year batch is lucky, because the last year was the "difficult" year. So this year AIPG 2015 will be an "easy" paper.
4. So what's the recommended strategy for the coming week exam? Just read any one common/ basic mcq book.

Now let's dissect the problem!

As you all must have realized by now, "difficult vs easy" paper concept is applicable only in Absolute marks papers like the ones you gave in your schools and university exams.

Entrance exams are Relative performance exams. Here "difficult vs easy" exam makes no sense. It is irrelevant here.

Difficult vs Easy exams only decide the overall average score, which goes up in easy exams and stays low in difficult exams. So if the last year exam was indeed difficult, the average would have stayed low - around 70%. Similarly if this year the exam is going to be easy, then it only means the average would go up to 80-90%.

Ranks are decided by your relative performances. In other words, what decides your rank is how better you are when compared to your competitors; and this 'competition or relative performance remains the same' at both levels- easy exam or difficult exam.

So it means, you have the same chance in both exams - your 'relative' position will not improve in an easy exam, just as it won't worsen in a difficult exam.

The only thing that changes is the average score of the masses (students); and that would just be an interesting statistic of academic interest for exam boards and coaching classes. But that's about it! Nothing more than that!

Now coming to the book. "You read just 'XYZ' book that would be enough for this exam"

1. It only tells you how you can keep yourself just around the average score of the year. (Not assures you any rank, if you follow their strategy - you would be way behind, anyway)

2. It only tells you how to move 'with' the crowd. But entrance exams are not like your bds exams. You can't move 'with' the crowd here and just pass the exam. You have to 'beat' the crowd if you want a rank.

3. And if your last week strategy is about reading XYZ mcq book, that everybody reads throughout the year then how are you different from others and what were you doing all this time?

If you haven't finished one basic mcq book or still feel the need to revise that one book, then you need not worry about the competition because you are yourself not a competition. You are not a threat to anybody. You are just moving with the crowd and not in the top league to get a rank.

In other words, people don't consider you as a competition!

Moral of the story :

If some source tells you that this year's AIPG exam is going to be easy, remember that it reveals nothing significant about your chances of a rank.

It doesn't tell you anything about whether you will get a rank; it only tells you - there is chance that your score may go up!

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