The popular whatsapp message, which claims that all world cup 2015 matches are fixed has started to go wrong and that too with the initial few matches only. In fact it never met the test of time, as it was released only after the most anticipated Ind vs Pak match. So it came out to be true only for a few days.
This low level of prediction can be made anywhere - weather, sports or exams. By law of averages, some predictions are bound to come true, even with all the randomness spread around. And anybody can make it.
You can learn two terms today - 'Randomness' and 'Law of averages'.
Randomness is characterized by a lack of pattern or predictability in events. Any random sequence of events has no order and does not follow any pattern. Individual random events are unpredictable, and only when you accumulate a large number of events, some detectable pattern starts to emerge that may show 'some' amount of predictability.
The law of averages is an erroneous generalization of the law of large numbers. It states that if given enough instances or trials, the frequencies of events with the same likelihood of occurrence even out. However, this "law" merely represents wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle.
People do it because everyone wants to have 'some' control over things and events that their lives are associated with. Nobody wants to lose control. So everyone loves to detect a pattern even in things where there is no pattern.
This whatsapp fiasco of world cup 2015 reminds us of another fiasco - the prediction of AIPG 2015 paper. The prediction was that there is a pattern in AIPG papers. If last year paper was difficult, this year paper would be easy. And they predicted that since AIPG 2014 was indeed tough, they will get an easy paper in AIPG 2015.
We all know it never came true. And went in exactly opposite direction.
This low level of prediction can be made anywhere - weather, sports or exams. By law of averages, some predictions are bound to come true, even with all the randomness spread around. And anybody can make it.
Randomness is characterized by a lack of pattern or predictability in events. Any random sequence of events has no order and does not follow any pattern. Individual random events are unpredictable, and only when you accumulate a large number of events, some detectable pattern starts to emerge that may show 'some' amount of predictability.
The law of averages is an erroneous generalization of the law of large numbers. It states that if given enough instances or trials, the frequencies of events with the same likelihood of occurrence even out. However, this "law" merely represents wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle.
People do it because everyone wants to have 'some' control over things and events that their lives are associated with. Nobody wants to lose control. So everyone loves to detect a pattern even in things where there is no pattern.
This whatsapp fiasco of world cup 2015 reminds us of another fiasco - the prediction of AIPG 2015 paper. The prediction was that there is a pattern in AIPG papers. If last year paper was difficult, this year paper would be easy. And they predicted that since AIPG 2014 was indeed tough, they will get an easy paper in AIPG 2015.
We all know it never came true. And went in exactly opposite direction.
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